A weekly labor-market read
for serious investors.

Every week, we read the labor-market and human-capital data: hiring, layoffs, wages, productivity, talent flow, for the signal that reprices public equities before the market catches on.

Written for investors, allocators, and operators who know the workforce is a leading indicator for the market, not an HR footnote, and act on it.

Charts that clarify the economics. Frameworks that simplify the complexity. A second-order read on every data print. A sourced view of what it means for capital. Analysis, never a tip. Stop trading the headline. Subscribe free.

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Latest issues

250 Years of Adding

For 250 years America grew by adding. The 2026 playbook is to grow profits by subtracting, cutting labor now to harvest margin later, and the market may be paying for a one-time cut as if it compounds.

Jul 3, 2026 8 min read

Strong Enough to Cut

Low unemployment is doing two jobs at once: keeping the Fed hawkish, and giving companies cover to cut white-collar workers for margin. Both lean on the one number that breaks last.

Jun 26, 2026 6 min read

The Thaw Shows Up in Temp First

Everyone's blaming AI for the freeze. The data says it's cyclical, and the earliest cyclical tell just flipped.

Jun 19, 2026 7 min read

Payrolls Beat Expectations by More Than 2×. The Leading Indicator Didn't.

May payrolls doubled the forecast — but temp help, the labor market's leading indicator, kept shrinking. The two signals point opposite ways.

Jun 17, 2026 1 min read

How do I set clear expectations without sounding like I'm micromanaging?

Micromanaging isn't about how much you specify — it's being prescriptive on the method and vague on the outcome. The fix is to flip it.

Jun 16, 2026 1 min read

Nominal Pay: +3.4%. Real Pay: −0.8%.

Nominal wages look healthy. Real purchasing power just turned negative for the second month in a row though.

Jun 15, 2026 2 min read

The Peer Effect

Why the people around your team members are shaping their output as much as the people themselves — and most managers have never once managed it.

Jun 12, 2026 21 min read

How do I manage someone who's been doing the job for years and stopped growing?

They stopped growing because you stopped requiring it.

Jun 11, 2026 2 min read

U.S. Hiring Intentions Rose 7 Points as the Rest of the World Retreated

Employer confidence strengthened to a cycle high in the U.S. even as hiring outlooks weakened in 33 of 42 countries. The divergence matters more than the headline number.

Jun 10, 2026 2 min read

How do I talk to someone about their attitude?

You can't talk to someone about their attitude. Attitude isn't a thing you can address, because it isn't a thing.

Jun 9, 2026 3 min read

Two Sectors Generated 73% of May's Job Gains

Leisure, hospitality, and local government added 125,000 of May's 172,000 jobs. The sectors most managers compete in added almost nothing.

Jun 8, 2026 3 min read

The Wrong Room Problem

Why your best people keep failing after promotion, and what it's actually costing you.

Jun 5, 2026 16 min read

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